The Midwest is currently enjoying a stretch of pleasant summer weather with comfortable temperatures and dry conditions expected to continue through the end of the week. However, residents should prepare for a change in the weather pattern as the weekend approaches, with increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms.
This seasonable weather is being brought by a high-pressure system that has settled over the Great Lakes region. The system is expected to keep temperatures near normal for this time of year, with highs in the low to mid-80s and lows in the low to mid-60s. The humidity levels are also expected to remain comfortable, with dew points in the low 60s during the day and upper 50s at night.
Pleasant conditions through Friday
Through Friday, the Midwest can expect mostly sunny skies and light winds. The high-pressure system will keep the weather stable and quiet, making it an ideal time for outdoor activities. However, residents should be aware that the sky may appear hazy due to wildfire smoke drifting in from western Canada and the northwestern United States. This smoke is expected to stay at high altitudes and should not affect air quality at the surface.
The pleasant weather is expected to continue through Friday, with high temperatures staying right where they should be for this time of year. In Indianapolis, for example, the normal high temperature for the end of July is 85°F, and the current forecast is calling for highs between 84 and 87 degrees. Overnight lows in the low to mid-60s are also right on target for this time of year.
Weekend rain chances
The quiet weather pattern is expected to break down as we head into the weekend. A sluggish area of low pressure is expected to develop over the Plains on Friday and slowly drift toward the Midwest over the weekend. This system is bringing rain and thunderstorm chances back into the forecast for Saturday and Sunday, with the potential for some heavy downpours in spots.
The exact timing and track of this system are still uncertain, as weather models are having difficulty predicting the movement of this cutoff low. A cutoff low is a low-pressure system that detaches from the main jet stream, causing it to move very slowly and erratically. This makes it notoriously difficult for computer forecast models to handle with precision.
Current forecasts suggest that the weekend will not be a total washout, with periods of rain and thunderstorms interspersed with drier gaps. However, those with outdoor plans should be prepared for the possibility of passing showers and keep an eye on the latest forecast for updated timing. Forecast rainfall totals for Saturday and Sunday combined range from about 0.75 inches to 2.25 inches, with locally higher amounts possible if storms train over the same locations.
Looking ahead to next week
Once this weekend’s weather system moves out, the weather pattern is expected to make a significant shift as we head into the first week of August. The main jet stream is expected to retreat well to the north, opening the door for warmer air to surge back into the region from the south and southwest.
As we look ahead to the first week of August, expect a warming trend to take hold by the middle of next week. High temperatures are expected to climb back into the upper 80s and low 90s, with humidity levels also on the rise. This will mark a return to more typical summer weather for the Midwest.
