The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supplies, has been the stage for a covert operation that has kept oil flowing despite intense regional tensions. President Donald Trump recently revealed a secret mission conducted by the US to facilitate the movement of oil through the strait, bypassing Iran’s restrictions. This operation has significant implications for global energy markets and the geopolitical landscape.
The narrow waterway, which handles 20% of the world’s energy flows, has been a flashpoint since early March when the US and Israel launched attacks on Tehran. Iran initially blocked all passage, then allowed limited transit for select countries under strict conditions. The US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ships and ports in April, further complicating the situation. Despite these restrictions, oil has continued to flow, thanks to a series of clandestine operations.
The Secret Mission: How It Works
President Trump announced that the US has been conducting a secret mission to help Gulf petrostates bypass Iran’s chokehold on oil flows. According to Trump, dozens of tankers have been escorted out of the blockaded channel at night with their transmitters off, making their movements undetectable. The president claimed that over 200 vessels have successfully transported more than 100 million barrels of oil to global buyers.
The operation involves shadow transitswhere tankers exit the Gulf and conduct ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman. These empty tankers then return to the Gulf to reload more oil and gas. The US has been providing overwatch operationsusing autonomous vehicles, aircraft, and drones to escort the tankers through the southern part of the strait, close to the coast of Oman and out of the line of fire from Iranian territory.
The Numbers Behind the Operation
The number of oil and gas tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz is still far below pre-crisis levels. Before the crisis, an average of 138 ships transited the waterway daily. However, once the war began, this number dropped significantly. Today, about 25% of the tankers present in the Gulf at the start of the crisis have managed to leave the region.
Tracking the exact number of dark tankers—those with their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transmitters switched off—is challenging. Satellite images show these tankers loading at Gulf ports before undertaking shadow transits and ship-to-ship transfers. Analysts have recorded 36 transits through the strait between June 1 and June 7, of which 17 were dark and 19 were traceable. However, the exact number of dark transits remains difficult to gauge due to the delayed switching on of transmitters in different locations.
The Impact on Global Oil Markets
The clandestine operations have had a noticeable impact on global oil markets. The price of Brent crude has tumbled from over $110 a barrel at the start of last month to about $93 a barrel this week. Market observers believe that much more oil could be leaving the Gulf than previously thought, thanks to the shadow transits and shuttle tankers.
Ship-to-ship transfers may have helped an average of about 1.9 million barrels of oil a day to move through the strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman since the start of April. The figure may have reached highs of 2.1 million barrels a day in late May, according to estimates from JP Morgan, or even as high as 2.9 million barrels per day, according to investment bank Piper Sandler. However, this represents just a fraction of the 15.6 million barrels that flowed through the strait per day before the war.
Despite the covert operations, experts warn that without a return to normal oil flows, rising prices are expected to return. Jan Stuart, global energy economist and strategist at Piper Sandler, expects the price of Brent crude to average $130 a barrel in July and August as global oil inventories continue to sink and demand for fuels during the summer driving season rises.
