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Global GDP growth projections
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects that global GDP growth will be approximately 3.0% in 2026. This figure indicates a slowdown compared to the 3.5% growth rate observed in 2025. Ongoing geopolitical tensions and inflationary pressures worldwide are key factors influencing this deceleration.
Inflation trends and central bank policies
Inflation rates are expected to average 4.2% globally in 2026, down from 5.5% in 2025. Central banks, including the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, are anticipated to maintain a cautious approach. Interest rates are likely to remain between 4.0% and 5.0%%. This policy aims to curb inflation without hindering economic growth.
Impact of supply chain disruptions
Supply chain disruptions continue to pose risks to global trade. The World Trade Organization (WTO) estimates that trade growth will be limited to 2.5% in 2026, significantly lower than the 4.0% growth seen in 2025. Increased protectionist measures and logistical challenges are contributing to this decline.
Sectoral performance: technology and energy
The technology sector is projected to grow by 6.0% in 2026, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and cybersecurity. In contrast, the energy sector may experience a contraction of 1.5% due to fluctuating oil prices and a global shift towards renewable energy sources.
Geopolitical factors and market stability
Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Eastern Europe and the Asia-Pacific region, are projected to negatively impact investment confidence. This could potentially reduce foreign direct investment (FDI) by 10% compared to 2025 levels, leading to increased volatility in financial markets.